Second Life – definitely “out” ?

Not a big news : Facebook and other Social Networks is the buzzword of 07 while the previous year was the year of Virtual Worlds, especially Second Life.
Since the beginning of last year, the first critics about SL was appearing. Since september 07, the situation was clear – Second Life was not the hot topic anymore.
And now, when I look at some figures, I wonder if Second Life is turning to be the completely "out" topic.

Hereunder, you’ll find Second Life’s alexa traffic – for those who are not familiar with this tool, alexa tracks the traffic of the major website of the web. Not 100% reliable, but it gives you a good idea of the trends.

Graph_2

The full graph

(just a funny fact – just add on the graphic the keywords "worldofwarcraft.com" or "facebook.com". Crazy, isn’t it ?). Clubpenguin.com is the famous virtual universe dedicated to kid acquired by Disney discussed in this previous article.

You can also check the google trends graphic for the same keywords which confirm the trend.

We’ve alredy discussed the topic in july 07. But I wanted to come back on this a few months after, and give 5 pro / 5 con ideas regarding SL, just in case to discuss with clients 🙂

5 reasons why second life is still an interesting plateform to visit / to investigate for you and your client

Now, my opinon : it’s not new, the trends is just going on – Second life is definitely not the hot topic anymore. But it’s not because people don’t talk about it that there is nothing interesting inside. Reasons why Second Life is still a universe to investigate :

1/ it is the most advanced social technology plateform of the moment (3D, voice, social capabilities, etc)
2/ Second Life has a strong community which remains dynamic : http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs.php
3/ Second Life is the most advanced community in term of Metaverse (a universe created and animated by its users)
4/ Second Life remains the best place to experiment Virtual Universes, 3D technology, etc
5/ Second Life is the most advanced virtual Universe while young generation are getting more and more used to interact with this new universes (see the previous article discussing the NYT article)

5 reasons why people don’t visit Second Life anymore

But despite the fact that I’m a Second Life enthusiast, I have to admit that people are not interesting anymore in that universe. And here are the main reasons I’ve identified.

1/ "Second Life sucks". The plateform in itself is unstable, require huge computer to work decently and … compared to actual 3D games, it’s just ugly. Welcome back to 90’s graphics.
2/ "Second Life is boring". Second Life for newbie is a very disturbing experience. People are so disappointed when discovering a virtual universe : rules are changed. How many avatars die after a few minutes lost in the newbie island ?
3/ "I’ve got Facebook, looser". Second Life completely missed the social network game. Making more bridges between identities and avatars would have been a good way to increase retention, and attract new people. Of course, facebook is not the same, but the social aspect of Second Life has been neglected.
4/ "It’s unsafe, it’s crowded with sexual pervert and it emits ton of carbons". Blablababla. At least, that’s what media says (the same media that never visited SL to write articles about it).
5/ "It is for Nerds". Or at least, you need to have a certain familiarity with a computer and a LOT of time.

My diagnostic would be : all these critics are true. But it also confirms that Second Life remains a fantastic place to experiment what Social web could be in the coming year – Second Life is a universe of Science fiction, a visionnary place built by technology pioneers.
A lot of people made the mistake to think it was mainstream.
Not yet. It requires to be open minded and aware of what it implies.

Let’s hope that the next plateforms will learn from Second Life present critics. But for the moment, the advice for our client remains the same :
"Go to second life to experiment and interact with your community"

Have you also the feeling the Second Life is going to be out ?
Have you identified reason why people may think that ?
Would you recommend it for a client ?
Have a different feeling about it ?

Pierre from Paris

Second Skin – a documentary about second lives

I’ve just noticed this this week end somewhere lost in my RSS reader.
Some people are finishing a documentary about virtual universes – of course, there will be a strong focus on gaming, but Metaverses (such as Second Life) will also be in …

Second Skin takes an intimate look at computer gamers whose lives have been transformed by the emerging genre of Massively Multiplayer Online games (MMOs). World of Warcraft, Second Life, and Everquest allow millions of users to simultaneously interact in virtual spaces. Second Skin introduces us to couples who have fallen in love without meeting, disabled players who have found new purpose, addicts, Chinese gold-farming sweatshop workers, wealthy online entrepreneurs and legendary guild leaders – all living in a world that doesn’t quite exist.

If you want to have a look at the trailer : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPOxuOCGi9I
If you want to have more info : http://www.pwdocs.com/secondskin/?id=home
They have a blog : http://www.secondskinfilm.com/blog/

A closer look at viral mechanism – who said that viral was simple ?

Fred Cavazza, a french consultant discussed this article from Fast Company about the book of Duncan Watts who made research on viral spreading.
The article can be found here, and bring a new light on viral mechanism
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/122/is-the-tipping-point-toast.html

A short summary in bad english

1/ Viral mechanism do not rely on key influencers for the spreading. It’s more chaotic and unpredictable that a hierchical vision of information spreading. His conclusion : Viral spreading are only due to random interactions between people.

2/ The author gives the fire forest metaphor : if all the conditions are gathered (humidity, sun, firemen time of response, the sort of wood, etc) a fire could be a catastrophy just with a single match. On the contrary, if the conditions are bad (if it rains, or if the wood is not dry enough), even fire bomb cannot help.

Cf the scheme hereunder :

Conclusion : analysis of the context is key, muliplying the entry points for your campagne is critical to create a good beginning and having the chance to stand out.

As for Fred Cavazza, he underlines the fact that time is also a key factor : the faster you want to go, the higher the chance to fail will be. If the timing is good, and If the context and the conditions are there, success will be your.

As for me, I think that Influencers are also important. If they are not a guarantee of success, they act as echo chamber that speed up your campaign – they are some kind of entry point hard to avoid …

What is your opinion ? Any specialist of chaos theory ?

Pierre from Paris